Markets / EU
CBI Ban Legislation歐盟
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歐盟 2026 底前正式立法禁止成員國 CBI / Golden Passport？
50%
YES / NO forecaster split
forecasters · YES 0 / NO 0
YES 50%NO 50%
Deadline: 2026-12-31 UTCResolution: high● Open for forecasts
Market Brief
Why it matters: A binding EU-wide CBI ban would reshape the global CBI market and government-policy risk premium.
Current baseline: 是否存在 EU-wide binding legislation 禁止成員國 CBI/golden passport
What moves probability:
- YES 壓力：By 2026-12-31 23:59 UTC, EUR-Lex or another official EU legal source publishes binding EU legislation that prohibits member states from operating citizenship-by-investment / golden passport programs.
- NO 壓力：No binding EU-wide legislation is published by the deadline.
Resolution source: EUR-Lex: https://eur-lex.europa.eu
Resolution Criteria
YES if
- By 2026-12-31 23:59 UTC, EUR-Lex or another official EU legal source publishes binding EU legislation that prohibits member states from operating citizenship-by-investment / golden passport programs.
NO if
- No binding EU-wide legislation is published by the deadline.
Does not count
- CJEU Malta judgment alone.
- Non-binding European Parliament resolutions, Commission statements, consultations, drafts, or individual member-state closures.
EUR-Lex: https://eur-lex.europa.eu
European Commission: https://ec.europa.eu
Ambiguity rule: Binding EU legal text controls. Non-binding political/legal developments are context only and do not resolve YES.
Bond Note
Why it matters: A binding EU-wide CBI ban would reshape the global CBI market and government-policy risk premium.
Key date: 2026-12-31 · market deadline
Baseline: 是否存在 EU-wide binding legislation 禁止成員國 CBI/golden passport
BPROL view: This separates legal binding force from political pressure.
Background
CJEU 對 Malta investor citizenship 的裁決已實質打擊 EU CBI，但本市場只追蹤 EU 是否發布具約束力的 EU-wide 禁止規則，不把不具約束力決議或單一法院裁決本身算作 YES。