Markets / EU
Nationality Law歐盟
🇵🇹
葡萄牙 7/10 年入籍新規 2026 底前正式生效？
50%
YES / NO forecaster split
forecasters · YES 0 / NO 0
YES 50%NO 50%
Deadline: 2026-12-31 UTCResolution: high● Open for forecasts
Probability trend
Market Brief
Why it matters: Portugal is a flagship EU residency-to-citizenship pathway; a 7/10-year rule would materially change planning assumptions.
Current baseline: 自然化居住年限：一般 5 年；市場追蹤是否改為一般 10 年 / EU-CPLP 7 年
What moves probability:
- YES 壓力：By 2026-12-31 23:59 UTC, Diário da República officially publishes/effects a nationality law change extending naturalization residence requirements to 10 years generally and 7 years for EU/CPLP nationals.
- NO 壓力：The rule is not officially published/effective by the deadline.
Resolution source: Diário da República: https://dre.pt
Resolution Criteria
YES if
- By 2026-12-31 23:59 UTC, Diário da República officially publishes/effects a nationality law change extending naturalization residence requirements to 10 years generally and 7 years for EU/CPLP nationals.
NO if
- The rule is not officially published/effective by the deadline.
- Only parliamentary votes, presidential review, court proceedings, drafts, or media reports exist by the deadline.
Does not count
- Political announcements without official publication/effectiveness.
- Different nationality-law changes that do not implement the 7/10-year residence requirement.
Diário da República: https://dre.pt
Portuguese Parliament: https://www.parlamento.pt
Ambiguity rule: Official publication/effectiveness in Diário da República controls. If legal effect is suspended or unclear at the deadline, admin resolves using the official legal status then available.
Bond Note
Why it matters: Portugal is a flagship EU residency-to-citizenship pathway; a 7/10-year rule would materially change planning assumptions.
Key date: 2026-12-31 · market deadline
Baseline: 自然化居住年限：一般 5 年；市場追蹤是否改為一般 10 年 / EU-CPLP 7 年
BPROL view: This is a citizenship-timeline risk signal, not a Golden Visa application-volume signal.
Background
葡萄牙國籍法修正案方向是將一般自然化居住年限從 5 年延長至 10 年，EU/CPLP 國民為 7 年；不是縮短至 5 年。2025 年 12 月憲法法院否決四項條款，但 10 年期限規定未受影響。2026 年 4 月議會以三分之二多數再次通過，現送交總統審查。本市場追蹤該 7/10 年規則是否在期限前正式刊載/生效。
Recent predictions
YES7.72 forecast units
04/29 03:14
YES7.95 forecast units
04/29 03:13